So I find my job pretty enjoyable and really can't complain. But if there was every a way to merge portfolio management with fantasy baseball, well, that would just about be my ideal job. Enter : Real Sports Investments. Basically, they're trying to securitize a player's future earnings - selling off the player's risk/return profile to individual investors and providing a hedging instrument for the player. Now, Randy Newsom is probably a horrible investment. And the MLBPA will fight it and it'll likely never take off. But if it ever does, I'm launching my own Player Equity Investment Fund...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/ShouldYouInvestInABallplayer.aspx
https://www.realsportsinvestments.com/
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
Top Theme from Each Owner During the SJJL Draft
Tim - "If healthy...."
Albaugh - "By a 1:00 start you mean 1:30, right?"
Christian - "Mmmm....needs more catcher."
Gintz - "I've got the whole networking thing taken care of."
Morten - "2 minuted time limit? That means I can take 1 minute and 59 seconds every time!"
Tracy - "How did I end up with just 6 keepers?"
Hanley - "Maybe I'll just let the draft robot make this pick for me."
Jason - "I'm back in the game!"
Woodhouse - "OF positions require AARP membership."
Chris - "NL MVP : Kelly Johnson. Time Man of the Year : Kelly Johnson. 15th Incarnation of the Dalai Lama : Kelly Johnson."
Powell - "This pick is a bit of a stretch, but...; You'll probably think this pick is a bit of a stretch, but..."
Craig - "I'm secretly an Angels fan."
Albaugh - "By a 1:00 start you mean 1:30, right?"
Christian - "Mmmm....needs more catcher."
Gintz - "I've got the whole networking thing taken care of."
Morten - "2 minuted time limit? That means I can take 1 minute and 59 seconds every time!"
Tracy - "How did I end up with just 6 keepers?"
Hanley - "Maybe I'll just let the draft robot make this pick for me."
Jason - "I'm back in the game!"
Woodhouse - "OF positions require AARP membership."
Chris - "NL MVP : Kelly Johnson. Time Man of the Year : Kelly Johnson. 15th Incarnation of the Dalai Lama : Kelly Johnson."
Powell - "This pick is a bit of a stretch, but...; You'll probably think this pick is a bit of a stretch, but..."
Craig - "I'm secretly an Angels fan."
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Ok, enough with the projections...
I seem to have remembered that Craig posted his projections back on the yahoo site that we had up before the 2006 season. All the posts are still there and I found it and here it is:
*********
Wanting to stir up conversation and have team owners tell me I'mwrong, I'm releasing my league pre-season projectoins. Thisprojections are based on the Pecota projections, along with some ofmy own opinion...Obviously take this with a graing of salt... expecially because I'mnot sure how Hanley fell into that 4th spot (sorry Hanley, had totake a shot at you). And just for everyone's information, the 4-8places all game in really close in points.
1 Christian (third place)
2 Chris
3 Gintz
4 Hanley
5 Tracy
6 Craig (4th? place)
7 Jason
8 Morten
9 Albaugh (first place)
10 Powell
11 Woodhouse (second place)
12 Tim
*********
I'm not trying to rag on anyone's projections for this year, but I can't remember once when someone projected someone to win and they did...except for maybe me and Hanley in 2003, our keeper list was beyond ridiculous, but then again we were both newbies so no one probably thought we'd actually win. And I'm sure someone predicted CA would win last year, but it seems like every year someone does. It just shows that everyone has a fair chance no matter what the websites say. Anyone have any old projections they made in previous years? Ya know, the ones where Powell is projected to contend...
*********
Wanting to stir up conversation and have team owners tell me I'mwrong, I'm releasing my league pre-season projectoins. Thisprojections are based on the Pecota projections, along with some ofmy own opinion...Obviously take this with a graing of salt... expecially because I'mnot sure how Hanley fell into that 4th spot (sorry Hanley, had totake a shot at you). And just for everyone's information, the 4-8places all game in really close in points.
1 Christian (third place)
2 Chris
3 Gintz
4 Hanley
5 Tracy
6 Craig (4th? place)
7 Jason
8 Morten
9 Albaugh (first place)
10 Powell
11 Woodhouse (second place)
12 Tim
*********
I'm not trying to rag on anyone's projections for this year, but I can't remember once when someone projected someone to win and they did...except for maybe me and Hanley in 2003, our keeper list was beyond ridiculous, but then again we were both newbies so no one probably thought we'd actually win. And I'm sure someone predicted CA would win last year, but it seems like every year someone does. It just shows that everyone has a fair chance no matter what the websites say. Anyone have any old projections they made in previous years? Ya know, the ones where Powell is projected to contend...
League Projections - The BuRP Method
The Duffman is here with his projections for the 2008 SJJL season, oh yeah! These projections are based on the top 15 hitters as well as the pitching adjusted to 1800 IP. Obviously, the pitching isn't that easy to project so I tried to maximize the innings to the more probable pitchers (closers and good starters and relievers) while lessening impact of the more fringe pitches for those projected to go well over 1800 IP. These projections are based on Com.com, PECOTA, and ESPN mainly with some assistance from Sporting News and Fangraphs.
And the winner is...
Team-------------Total Points
1. Christian------98
2. Powell---------87
3. Chris-----------80
4. Tim------------71.5
5. Albaugh-------69
6. Hanley--------64
7. Jason----------64
8. Craig----------62
9. Gintz----------57.5
10. Tracy--------50.5
11. Woodhouse-45.5
12. Morten------31
...Christian?! What the Willie Bloomquist?!
In comparing it to Craig's, it's interesting to note that we have the same top 5 (albeit in different orders), Gintz in the same spot at 9 (no love for the Gintz dawg), and Morten bringing up the rear. The numbers make it seem like there's a big gap towards the front end of the rankings, but most categories were very close so it wouldn't take much to see anyone of the top 5 plummet in the rankings or one of the middle (Hanley, Craig, or Gintz especially) job up to the top.
I'll try to post some more detailed stuff later, including a "spring training" report on each of the divisions.
And the winner is...
Team-------------Total Points
1. Christian------98
2. Powell---------87
3. Chris-----------80
4. Tim------------71.5
5. Albaugh-------69
6. Hanley--------64
7. Jason----------64
8. Craig----------62
9. Gintz----------57.5
10. Tracy--------50.5
11. Woodhouse-45.5
12. Morten------31
...Christian?! What the Willie Bloomquist?!
In comparing it to Craig's, it's interesting to note that we have the same top 5 (albeit in different orders), Gintz in the same spot at 9 (no love for the Gintz dawg), and Morten bringing up the rear. The numbers make it seem like there's a big gap towards the front end of the rankings, but most categories were very close so it wouldn't take much to see anyone of the top 5 plummet in the rankings or one of the middle (Hanley, Craig, or Gintz especially) job up to the top.
I'll try to post some more detailed stuff later, including a "spring training" report on each of the divisions.
Below are the totals for each category... (updated)
Owner R HR RBI SB BA W S K ERA WHIP Total
Tim 5 12 11 11 3 11 11 6 4 9 83
Albaugh 10 10 10 4 7 8 5 2 11 12 79
Powell 8 6 8 12 4 2 9 9 12 7 77
Chris 9 11 9 9 10 3 2 12 2 8 75
Christian 7 7 3 8 8 1 9 8 10 11 72
Craig 4 1 2 10 9 10 12 10 8 1 67
Tracy 3 9 5 2 11 9 10 5 7 6 67
Hanley 12 8 12 3 12 7 3 3 3 2 65
Gintz 11 5 7 6 5 4 6 7 1 4 57
Woodhouse 6 3 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 3 50
Jason 2 4 4 5 2 6 7 1 9 5 45
Morten 1 2 1 1 1 12 1 11 5 10 45
Owner R HR RBI SB BA W S K ERA WHIP Total
Tim 5 12 11 11 3 11 11 6 4 9 83
Albaugh 10 10 10 4 7 8 5 2 11 12 79
Powell 8 6 8 12 4 2 9 9 12 7 77
Chris 9 11 9 9 10 3 2 12 2 8 75
Christian 7 7 3 8 8 1 9 8 10 11 72
Craig 4 1 2 10 9 10 12 10 8 1 67
Tracy 3 9 5 2 11 9 10 5 7 6 67
Hanley 12 8 12 3 12 7 3 3 3 2 65
Gintz 11 5 7 6 5 4 6 7 1 4 57
Woodhouse 6 3 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 3 50
Jason 2 4 4 5 2 6 7 1 9 5 45
Morten 1 2 1 1 1 12 1 11 5 10 45
League Projections
So I did some quick and dirty league projections based simply on the Com.com projected stats. Take these for what they ware worth, becasue I'm not that excited about Com.com's projections, however, I didn't want to take a whole lot of time on them...
Some observations on what came of the projections. Hanley surprised me with how good his hitting his, although is pitching is bad. Christian was not as good as I thought he'd be, but that doesn't really matter as he'll find a way to win the league. Tim was good, which I expected. My team is bad in power, which I already knew, and is good in steals in avg.
Morten projected out by far the worst. His offense is just putrid. His pitching is good, but it can't make up for how bad his hitting is.
Here are projections that Com.com gave me. The only thing I did to munipulate stats was I used the best 15 hitters for the hitting totals, and based the pitching numbers on 1800 innings pitched. I will post the complete projections once I figure out an easy way to get the spreadsheet data into a blog post...
Owner------Total
Tim---------83
Albaugh---- 79
Powell ------77
Chris------- 75
Christian ---72
Craig -------68
Tracy ------67
Hanley -----66
Gintz -------53
Woodhouse -51
Jason ------45
Morten ----45
Some observations on what came of the projections. Hanley surprised me with how good his hitting his, although is pitching is bad. Christian was not as good as I thought he'd be, but that doesn't really matter as he'll find a way to win the league. Tim was good, which I expected. My team is bad in power, which I already knew, and is good in steals in avg.
Morten projected out by far the worst. His offense is just putrid. His pitching is good, but it can't make up for how bad his hitting is.
Here are projections that Com.com gave me. The only thing I did to munipulate stats was I used the best 15 hitters for the hitting totals, and based the pitching numbers on 1800 innings pitched. I will post the complete projections once I figure out an easy way to get the spreadsheet data into a blog post...
Owner------Total
Tim---------83
Albaugh---- 79
Powell ------77
Chris------- 75
Christian ---72
Craig -------68
Tracy ------67
Hanley -----66
Gintz -------53
Woodhouse -51
Jason ------45
Morten ----45
Thursday, March 6, 2008
A League of Their Own; Or How We Created A Little Parity for the Tampa Bay's of Fantasy Baseball
One of the main reasons to changing the nature of the league to a keeper league that employed a hybrid of auction-style keeper rules was to create more turnover of the better players and, consequently, create more parity in the league. In looking over the keeper lists, it looks like we are achieving the first part of the goal. The second part is, of course, dependent on drafting a decent supporting cast, keeping the players healthy, and actually looking at your team more than once a month.
I created a rundown to look at the number of players kept by each team this year as well as the number of players remaining on the same teams over the last two years. The end result of all of this -- less than half the players kept this year were on the corresponding team last year. Also, even though most teams kept the maximum of 10 players, no team kept more than 6 from two years ago and only two teams kept less than 4. Though the A-Rod's and Pujols' aren't changing teams (i.e. the top 20 players), the rest are, giving other teams the chance to build a solid team and a chance at finishing in the top 4 (sort of like the Tampa Bay Duffmen). As someone on the outside looking in for top level keepers, this is making the league a lot more fun for me.
Team Name - # of 2008 Keepers (# of Keepers from 2007)
Powell - 10 (5)
Hanley - 10 (3)
Christian - 10 (6)
Craig - 10 (4)
Chris - 10 (5)
Albaugh - 10 (5)
Gintz - 10 (6)
Woodhouse - 10 (6)
Jason - 9 (3)
Morten - 10 (4)
Tracy - 6 (4)
Tim - 10 (5)
Total Kept - 115 (56)
Mean - 9.6 (4.7)
Median - 10 (5)
Max - 10 (6)
Min - 6 (3)
I created a rundown to look at the number of players kept by each team this year as well as the number of players remaining on the same teams over the last two years. The end result of all of this -- less than half the players kept this year were on the corresponding team last year. Also, even though most teams kept the maximum of 10 players, no team kept more than 6 from two years ago and only two teams kept less than 4. Though the A-Rod's and Pujols' aren't changing teams (i.e. the top 20 players), the rest are, giving other teams the chance to build a solid team and a chance at finishing in the top 4 (sort of like the Tampa Bay Duffmen). As someone on the outside looking in for top level keepers, this is making the league a lot more fun for me.
Team Name - # of 2008 Keepers (# of Keepers from 2007)
Powell - 10 (5)
Hanley - 10 (3)
Christian - 10 (6)
Craig - 10 (4)
Chris - 10 (5)
Albaugh - 10 (5)
Gintz - 10 (6)
Woodhouse - 10 (6)
Jason - 9 (3)
Morten - 10 (4)
Tracy - 6 (4)
Tim - 10 (5)
Total Kept - 115 (56)
Mean - 9.6 (4.7)
Median - 10 (5)
Max - 10 (6)
Min - 6 (3)
A Little Non-Baseball, Non-Sequitor
From an email forward that is a bit long, but actually funny.
Here's a prime example of "Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus" offered by an English professor from the University of Colorado for an actual class assignment:
The professor told his class one day: "Today we will experiment with a new form called the tandem story. The process is simple. Each person will pair off with the person sitting to his or her immediate right. As homework tonight, one of you will write the first paragraph of a short story. You will e-mail your partner that paragraph and send another copy to me. The partner will read the first paragraph and then add another paragraph to the story and send it back, also sending another copy to me.
"The first person will then add a third paragraph, and so on, back-and-forth. Remember to re-read what has been written each time in order to keep the story coherent. There is to be absolutely NO talking outside of the e-mails and anything you wish to say must be written in the e-mail. The story is over when both agree a conclusion has been reached."
The following was actually turned in by two of his English students, Rebecca and Gary.
THE STORY:
(*first paragraph by Rebecca*)
At first, Jennifer couldn't decide which kind of tea she wanted. The chamomile, which used to be her favorite for lazy evenings at home, now reminded her too much of Carl, who once said, in happier times, that he liked chamomile. But she felt she must now, at all costs, keep her mind off Carl. His possessiveness was suffocating, and if she thought about him too much her asthma started acting up again. So chamomile was out of the question.
(*second paragraph by Gary *)
Meanwhile, Advance Sergeant Carl Harris, leader of the attack squadron now in orbit over Skylon 4, had more important things to think about than the neuroses of an air-headed asthmatic bimbo named Jennifer with whom he had spent one sweaty night over a year ago. "A.S. Harris to Geostation 17," he said into his transgalactic communicator. "Polar orbit established. No sign of resistance so far..." But before he could sign off a bluish particle beam flashed out of nowhere and blasted a hole through his ship's cargo bay. The jolt from the direct hit sent him flying out of his seat and across the cockpit.
(*Rebecca*)
He bumped his head and died almost immediately, but not before he felt one last pang of regret for psychically brutalizing the one woman who had ever had feelings for him. Soon afterwards, Earth stopped its pointless hostilities towards the peaceful farmers of Skylon 4. "Congress Passes Law Permanently Abolishing War and Space Travel," Jennifer read in her newspaper one morning. The news simultaneously excited her and bored her. She stared out the window, dreaming of her youth, when the days had passed unhurriedly and carefree, with no newspaper to read, no television to distract her from her sense of innocent wonder at all the beautiful things around her. "Why must one lose one's innocence to become a woman?" she pondered wistfully.
(* Gary *)
Little did she know, but she had less than 10 seconds to live. Thousands of miles above the city, the Anudrian mother ship launched the first of its lithium fusion missiles. The dimwitted wimpy peaceniks who pushed the Unilateral Aerospace Disarmament Treaty through the congress had left Earth a defenseless target for the hostile alien empires who were determined to destroy the human race. Within two hours after the passage of the treaty, the Anudrian ships were on course for Earth, carrying enough firepower to pulverize the entire planet. With no one to stop them, they swiftly initiated their diabolical plan. The lithium fusion missile entered the atmosphere unimpeded. The President, in his top-secret mobile submarine headquarters on the ocean floor off the coast of Guam , felt the inconceivabl y massive explosion, which vaporized poor, stupid Jennifer.
(*Rebecca*)
This is absurd. I refuse to continue this mockery of literature. My writing partner is a violent, chauvinistic, semi-literate adolescent.
(* Gary *)
Yeah? Well, my writing partner is a self-centered tedious neurotic whose attempts at writing are the literary equivalent of Valium. "Oh, shall I have chamomile tea? Or shall I have some other sort of F--KING TEA??? Oh no, what am I to do? I'm such an air-headed bimbo who reads too many Danielle Steele novels!"
(*Rebecca*)
As*h *le
(* Gary *)
B*tch!
(*Rebecca*)
F**K YOU - YOU NEANDERTHAL!!
(* Gary *)
In your dreams, Ho. Go drink some tea.
(TEACHER)
A+. I really liked this one.
Here's a prime example of "Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus" offered by an English professor from the University of Colorado for an actual class assignment:
The professor told his class one day: "Today we will experiment with a new form called the tandem story. The process is simple. Each person will pair off with the person sitting to his or her immediate right. As homework tonight, one of you will write the first paragraph of a short story. You will e-mail your partner that paragraph and send another copy to me. The partner will read the first paragraph and then add another paragraph to the story and send it back, also sending another copy to me.
"The first person will then add a third paragraph, and so on, back-and-forth. Remember to re-read what has been written each time in order to keep the story coherent. There is to be absolutely NO talking outside of the e-mails and anything you wish to say must be written in the e-mail. The story is over when both agree a conclusion has been reached."
The following was actually turned in by two of his English students, Rebecca and Gary.
THE STORY:
(*first paragraph by Rebecca*)
At first, Jennifer couldn't decide which kind of tea she wanted. The chamomile, which used to be her favorite for lazy evenings at home, now reminded her too much of Carl, who once said, in happier times, that he liked chamomile. But she felt she must now, at all costs, keep her mind off Carl. His possessiveness was suffocating, and if she thought about him too much her asthma started acting up again. So chamomile was out of the question.
(*second paragraph by Gary *)
Meanwhile, Advance Sergeant Carl Harris, leader of the attack squadron now in orbit over Skylon 4, had more important things to think about than the neuroses of an air-headed asthmatic bimbo named Jennifer with whom he had spent one sweaty night over a year ago. "A.S. Harris to Geostation 17," he said into his transgalactic communicator. "Polar orbit established. No sign of resistance so far..." But before he could sign off a bluish particle beam flashed out of nowhere and blasted a hole through his ship's cargo bay. The jolt from the direct hit sent him flying out of his seat and across the cockpit.
(*Rebecca*)
He bumped his head and died almost immediately, but not before he felt one last pang of regret for psychically brutalizing the one woman who had ever had feelings for him. Soon afterwards, Earth stopped its pointless hostilities towards the peaceful farmers of Skylon 4. "Congress Passes Law Permanently Abolishing War and Space Travel," Jennifer read in her newspaper one morning. The news simultaneously excited her and bored her. She stared out the window, dreaming of her youth, when the days had passed unhurriedly and carefree, with no newspaper to read, no television to distract her from her sense of innocent wonder at all the beautiful things around her. "Why must one lose one's innocence to become a woman?" she pondered wistfully.
(* Gary *)
Little did she know, but she had less than 10 seconds to live. Thousands of miles above the city, the Anudrian mother ship launched the first of its lithium fusion missiles. The dimwitted wimpy peaceniks who pushed the Unilateral Aerospace Disarmament Treaty through the congress had left Earth a defenseless target for the hostile alien empires who were determined to destroy the human race. Within two hours after the passage of the treaty, the Anudrian ships were on course for Earth, carrying enough firepower to pulverize the entire planet. With no one to stop them, they swiftly initiated their diabolical plan. The lithium fusion missile entered the atmosphere unimpeded. The President, in his top-secret mobile submarine headquarters on the ocean floor off the coast of Guam , felt the inconceivabl y massive explosion, which vaporized poor, stupid Jennifer.
(*Rebecca*)
This is absurd. I refuse to continue this mockery of literature. My writing partner is a violent, chauvinistic, semi-literate adolescent.
(* Gary *)
Yeah? Well, my writing partner is a self-centered tedious neurotic whose attempts at writing are the literary equivalent of Valium. "Oh, shall I have chamomile tea? Or shall I have some other sort of F--KING TEA??? Oh no, what am I to do? I'm such an air-headed bimbo who reads too many Danielle Steele novels!"
(*Rebecca*)
As*h *le
(* Gary *)
B*tch!
(*Rebecca*)
F**K YOU - YOU NEANDERTHAL!!
(* Gary *)
In your dreams, Ho. Go drink some tea.
(TEACHER)
A+. I really liked this one.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
A little discussion of the keepers
I know all of us are pouring over the lists to see who was kept, who was availalbe, where we want to be in the draft, etc. I also know that none of us really want to discuss the players who we think were real mistakes regarding who was kept, hoping that they will somehow fall to us in the draft.
But what did Tim do in keeping Dunn over Hafner. Did he think that we switched to OBP, or was the flexibility of not having someone locked into your DH spot more important than ~40 points in batting average?
But what did Tim do in keeping Dunn over Hafner. Did he think that we switched to OBP, or was the flexibility of not having someone locked into your DH spot more important than ~40 points in batting average?
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