I know all of us are pouring over the lists to see who was kept, who was availalbe, where we want to be in the draft, etc. I also know that none of us really want to discuss the players who we think were real mistakes regarding who was kept, hoping that they will somehow fall to us in the draft.
But what did Tim do in keeping Dunn over Hafner. Did he think that we switched to OBP, or was the flexibility of not having someone locked into your DH spot more important than ~40 points in batting average?
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maybe he is really counting on the fact that Dunn's in a contract year.
and why didn't jason take the last pick in the draft instead of the first? he then could have had the first 2 picks in the draft, and still be picking back to back.
who else can we rag on?
Would you rather have picks #1, 3, 4, and 20, or #1, #2, #10, & #11. I don't know that Jason's decision was that clear. He wanted three of the top four, and he likes to be at the end (less time for him to be yelled at for missing picks).
I had dinner with him on Sunday. He's doing pretty good, and still surviving at WaMu somehow. He's moving in April to Woodinville, and having a baby in June (within days of his good buddy Chris). And he's a huge Obama guy despite his right-wing facade!
I will admit, there was one player I had never heard of, and Craig takes that cake. Sean (or Shawn) Hill. Learn something new every day (and shows my total lack of preparation).
I would have preferred 1,3,4 & 20. That way he gets Carlos Lee (who I can't believe Morten didn't keep)and two of the next three. Then you get two of the Berkman, Beckett, Figgins types - guys who could be real top keepers going forward.
yeah, I suppose had I actually looked at when he was picking have 1,3,4 and 20 is better than 1,2, 10 and 11. i was just looking at the first couple picks.
not sure what's up with not keeping Lee. i thought when i traded Lee and Beckett to mort last year that he would at least keep Lee.
Ok, here are some early thoughts.
1. Mort should have kept Lee and Beckett...honestly I think the Beckett choice might be odder since he would have cost a sixth (or is it seventh)?
2. I should have kept Berkman...but I think Mort and I both gambled and lost that more people would keep all three of their top guys. Although, the problem I had is who would I not keep? It would have meant Meche...who is clearly superior to what I would get at 25 or Johnson...who I'm getting like an 8 round bonus with. I suppose the other option was Rich Hill...but I like him a lot.
3. I agree with Gintz about Hafner v. Dunn. That was surprising.
Come on! Sean Hill, he's a household name! In reality, he was a last second addition. I was only going to keep 9, but I decided he was a decent value keeper at 18. He has the postential to be a 12-14 win guy with a low ERA and WHIP... however, he has injury risks...na
The keeper lists were interesting. A lot of high round guys left off teams. I should get two good players with my first two picks. What I will need to decide is do I go for needs or best available...
I really need to do some real research this year. I think not being prepared at all for the draft last year hurt me a lot...
I think teams can always make an argument for keeping a pitcher over a hitter, a MI over an outfielder, a younger player over an older player, a good value lower guy (KJohnson) over a better player (Berkman), etc., but Dunn over Hafner is too direct of a comparison to make any sense.
As always, time for a Mariner comparison. One can make an argument, even if flawed, that starters are more important that relievers (Soriano for Ramirez), established stars over many young players (Bedard over the farm system), etc. But trading Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago was the highest level of ineptitude. Same position, similar age, but way different results and projections. That's what Tim just pulled off.
Ya, when I saw Tim kept Dunn over Hafner I did a double take as well. I would like to hear an explanation from him on whhat his reasoning was.
There were a couple other "suprises" on people not being kept, or being borderline guys being kept, but this was the most obvious...
Oh, and Jason's team sucks... even with him getting all the early talent, his team will still suck too...
I see what you are saying Gintz. And I haven't done a ton of analysis on Morten's lower end guys to figure out if any of them were not good values.
And yes, Craig, thanks for stating the obvious.
Hey, I just wanted to continue to point Jason's teams suckiness...
Jason's team is a shining example of what can happen when you basically pick up no players during a season. This league is set up to reward some in season pickups that become players at least in the top 200. Everyone will luck into some of those without too much effort. He had a weak set of top three guys last year (Bay, Michael Young, and Zambrano), which were probably 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd rounders. Not the worst, but not good. Then all of them tanked bad.
He will start this season with a way better team than he ended last year with, but he will need to pay attention to at least get over 50 points this year.
Pay attention is the key word there... he will talk a good game early on that he will pay attention, yadda, yadda, yadda... but when it comes down to it, he will 5 guys in his starting lineup who are on his DL by July...
He'll be lucky to get 40 points...
Check out the new poll I posted on the site...
Who voted for 40-50? C'mon...
I thought there would be a couple of interesting players early on, but I was surprised by how many good players are there - Lee, Berkman, Hafner, Beckett, Roberts, etc. I actually have some thinking to do with my first two picks (brain hurt, must actually think about draft picks, my brain is rebelling, must grab a beer...ahhh, much better).
I'm guessing Tim thinks Hafner's slide last year will scare people off and make him available a couple of rounds later than he should be. In a normal draft maybe, but in ours we don't blindly pick off of ESPN's list (at least most of us don't).
I did, D-Bell. With picks 1, 3 & 4, he better be able to draft a decent team and I thought there was some discussion to giving Jason a sort of assistant GM (e.g. Gintz, or should I say "Anne") to rotate out his DL players.
I will bet anyone $10 that Jason will not finish with more than 40 points...
I don't care how well he drafts.
Oh, and guess what concert I'm going to a week from Friday... I'm going to make all of you jelous...
actually, lets see if anyone can guess...
The Wiggles in Concert?
BP vindicates Tim
Brian (Nashville): Do you see a bounceback season for Hafner, or is he already on the decline? Would you take him over Dunn in a standard 5x5 H2H?
Marc Normandin: Not a chance. He might bounce back some from last season, but I'm not sure that the old Hafner is coming back--unless of course, it really was injuries holding him back most of last season, and he's all healed up. You should be able to snag him later on due to other people's worries, so I'd take Dunn over him.
I think Powell nailed it, but it's on the 21st so that's two weeks from tomorrow...and at the Tacoma Dome! Arena Rock!
We have winner!!
Toot, toot, chugga, chugga big red car!!
And Chris is right, I'm so excited, I was hoping it was in one week...
It's on Good Friday... going to the Wiggles concert will make it a truly good Friday...
Rock on Anthony and Wags the Dog!
It's on Good Friday... going to the Wiggles concert will make it a truly good Friday...
That should be the signature line in your email.
Is it just you and Levi or is everyone going?
Also, is it the new lead singer? I'm pretty sure I heard last year that the one guys was retiring becasue of health problems.
It will probably just be Levi and me, although Katrina is still thinking about it...
And yes, sadly, Greg had to pass his yellow skivie on to a new lead singer because of some rare health issue he has...
Hopefully it will not be like when we saw Styx without Dennis DeYoung...
"It's on Good Friday... going to the Wiggles concert will make it a truly good Friday..."
I just joined Powell in voting for 40-50. Considering he's going to get something like Carlos Lee, Brian Roberts and Josh Beckett with his first three picks - that's a huge help. Throw in Holliday and Granderson and that's a pretty decent start to a team. Plus I'm guessing he does pay a bit more attention this year that last.
Now I don't think he'll do well, or even finish over ".500", but he only has to average about 3.5 points per category to get over 40.
Christian, I have $10 bucks that says you're wrong...
if i had $10 bucks for everytime CA was wrong i'd be a very rich man....
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