So I did some quick and dirty league projections based simply on the Com.com projected stats. Take these for what they ware worth, becasue I'm not that excited about Com.com's projections, however, I didn't want to take a whole lot of time on them...
Some observations on what came of the projections. Hanley surprised me with how good his hitting his, although is pitching is bad. Christian was not as good as I thought he'd be, but that doesn't really matter as he'll find a way to win the league. Tim was good, which I expected. My team is bad in power, which I already knew, and is good in steals in avg.
Morten projected out by far the worst. His offense is just putrid. His pitching is good, but it can't make up for how bad his hitting is.
Here are projections that Com.com gave me. The only thing I did to munipulate stats was I used the best 15 hitters for the hitting totals, and based the pitching numbers on 1800 innings pitched. I will post the complete projections once I figure out an easy way to get the spreadsheet data into a blog post...
Owner------Total
Tim---------83
Albaugh---- 79
Powell ------77
Chris------- 75
Christian ---72
Craig -------68
Tracy ------67
Hanley -----66
Gintz -------53
Woodhouse -51
Jason ------45
Morten ----45
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8 comments:
Craig,
You can take your com.com rankings and shove 'em. If I finish in 9th, only ahead of no-activity Jason, no-pick (and bad pick) Morten, and bad-keeper Woodhouse, this will be a terrible year for the Ratpack.
I do think I'm a little light in steals, but I think my other hitting categories will put me somewhere in the top half, and with Smoltz, Myers, Zambrano, Young, and Billingsley, I think I have five of the top 40 pitchers regardless of how they are ranked, which has to put me in the top few.
Did you do a weighted average on the ERA/WHIP?. That is my only hope, as my closers won't put up near the quality of ERA/WHIP as other teams with Putz, FRod, Nathan, etc., but with the fewer IP, won't hurt me too much as long as they get the saves.
Gintz, your team was last in both ERA and WHIP, so maybe my pjoections failed somewhere in that respect. Your starters ERAS killed your team...
so, if you don't get 1's in those two categories, you would go up significantly...
And other than being last in the two pitching categories, you middle of the road in most other categories.
This generally agrees with what I would intuitively think. My guess would be that Tim & Powell (there, I'm jinxing him again) are slight favorites. Jason and Morten would project to be at the bottom. And everyone else is in a giant pile in the middle.
Hanley does actually have a very good offense, even being light on steals. If somehow Pedro were to be healthy all year (unlikely), that would help his pitching. Of course, if Pujols goes down...
Tim's helped by Harden and Sheets projected to get 160 IP and 195 IP, respectively. Tim kept saying "if healthy" during the draft, and "if healthy" he should finish near the top of the standings.
My team is puzzling me. I liked my keepers, felt really good about my draft, and I FEEL good about my team. But put down on paper (using whatever projections), somehow the sum of the parts doesn't stack up as well as I would have expected. Even if I my players give me warm, fuzzy feelings it doesn't matter if, when I stack them up against the other teams, it doesn't add up to anything special.
The best thing about those projections (putting aside all the faults & obvious problems with using them), is that two years ago Woodhouse finished in 2nd and Morten won the year before that; while Tim & Powell were in 12th and 10th place.
Christian, I would aggree with your assessment. Chris and I talked on the way home, and we both felt like you had a really good draft. That combined with an already good keeper list, I figured you would project out the favaorite. So I was surprised you projected out where you did. With that said, if you look at the numbers, first is only 16 points ahead of 8th. What this says to me is the league is very close right now, and it will depend on how owners do in season, injuries, luck factors, and anyhthing else I'm forgetting that will determine who wins this year...
If the final standings are this close at the end of the sesson, that will make for an exciting run to finish...
I looked at my ERA/WHIP two ways.
The first was to take all of my pitchers and average the ERA/WHIP as represented. That gave me an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.33.
The second way was to take my top pitchers that have 1,768 innings (leaving off my two late flyers of Gavin Floyd and Dana Eveland). By doing a weighted average, the ERA drops to 3.81 and the WHIP to 1.27. If those are last in our league, I'll be shocked. Those are typically good enough for about 4th in each category.
I think the two ways my team gets hurt more than others is I drafted some really questionable starters late, and I only have three relievers. Typically, the relievers bring much lower peripherals, but fewer innings. For example, Powell has about 1,675 innings listed. If he picks up another 125 innings, it can't be all that helpful to his ERA/WHIP.
I did weight/average innings. Those who went over 1800 I brought down, and those under I brought up... everyone was based on an 1800 inning total... my projections have you at a 3.91 ERA which is last in my projections and a 1.32 WHIP which is also last.
I will redo them the way you did, and see how that chnages things...
Gintz, I did the pitching the way you said you did... you ERA went down to 3.86, but that is still last. However, your whip improved to 1.29, whic moved you up to 4 points in WHIP. Your projected total is now 56. I had taken Schilling out, and left Floyd. I switched those two...
I probably won't have time to do my own projections until next week, but the real suprise for me there was Albaugh ahead of CA and me. I honestly didn't pay enough attention to Powell's draft to have a strong feeling, but he has a bunch of guys who he kept between 15-25 who are upper round picks so it makes sense.
I would have put CA and Tim at the top considering they had the best keeper lists going in and I thought CA had a strong draft. I thought I was in good shape before the draft but I made some huge mistakes that I'm going to have really work to overcome. Damn you Jeremy Bonderman!
Anyway, once I have time I'll comment further.
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