I seem to have remembered that Craig posted his projections back on the yahoo site that we had up before the 2006 season. All the posts are still there and I found it and here it is:
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Wanting to stir up conversation and have team owners tell me I'mwrong, I'm releasing my league pre-season projectoins. Thisprojections are based on the Pecota projections, along with some ofmy own opinion...Obviously take this with a graing of salt... expecially because I'mnot sure how Hanley fell into that 4th spot (sorry Hanley, had totake a shot at you). And just for everyone's information, the 4-8places all game in really close in points.
1 Christian (third place)
2 Chris
3 Gintz
4 Hanley
5 Tracy
6 Craig (4th? place)
7 Jason
8 Morten
9 Albaugh (first place)
10 Powell
11 Woodhouse (second place)
12 Tim
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I'm not trying to rag on anyone's projections for this year, but I can't remember once when someone projected someone to win and they did...except for maybe me and Hanley in 2003, our keeper list was beyond ridiculous, but then again we were both newbies so no one probably thought we'd actually win. And I'm sure someone predicted CA would win last year, but it seems like every year someone does. It just shows that everyone has a fair chance no matter what the websites say. Anyone have any old projections they made in previous years? Ya know, the ones where Powell is projected to contend...
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4 comments:
Of course no projections are perfect, but I think these are probably about as accurate as projecting real baseball (who has the Rockies in the World Series last year?). While there's always a surprise, they do tend to be generally correct. I'll also point out my response below to Craig's projections post in 2006. I basically had you in 4th place, but had the least confidence in your ranking. In other words, I had you in the top 3rd, but where you would actually end up was highly variable depending on who you picked up that year. So while I didn't project you winning, but I thought you'd contend and thought there was a lot of variability in my estimate. Of course, I know I was way off with my dark-horse call on Powell last year.
I also have to give props to Chris for his 2007 projections last year. The email below details most of them (slightly edited to protect the innocent). And, other than missing out on Tim's breakout to 3rd place (that "horrible offense" projection was significanlty impacted by one Mr. Ryan Braun), he was pretty close. I inserted their actual finishes after the comments.
In the end, I think the tend to projections aren't completely useless, though one Woodhouse/Tim/Colorado Rockies seems to emerge each year. But, "that's why we play the games"...
On Thu, 23 Mar 2006, Christian Anderson wrote:
>
> I have Albaugh ranked around 4th place - however, the way I ran my
> projection is overly optimistic for Albaugh. I used rates for
> everything, and normalized for IP and plate appearences (assuming each
> team had the same amount in the end). Albaugh has both the least actual
> forecast PA and IP for his team. The players that will be filling up the
> rest of those stats will not likely be able to produce at the same rates
> as the rest of his team. I assigned a confidence rank to each team's
> projection based on forecast PA and IP, and Albaugh is last, followed by
> Tim.
>
Subject: projections
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2007 08:39:30 -0700
From: CoovertC@Peninsula.wednet.edu
To: ccoovert@kplu.org; anderscf@hotmail.com
Surprisingly, I came out in first. Now, to be honest, I really disagree with that, but in some ways it makes sense. After all, I drafted guys that I like. In fact, CA (1st) and I (2nd) were way ahead of everyone else. Although, the only bad teams were Tim (3rd), Jason (12th) and Hanley (6th). Tim’s offense is just horrible and his pitching projected mediocre, but that is with a very conservative projection for Felix. So, if I fix that he will improve. Jason could be ok, but he won’t be.
The other thing that really surprised me is that Morten (4th) and Tracy (9th) came out as being solid, which I wouldn’t have expected from just a casual look. They both have good pitching and decent hitting. Craig has the best pitching, but his offense projected low (10th).
Powell (10th) did not come out strong on my projections, so that was a noticeable difference from what others saw earlier. Gintz (8th) also looked weak.
ok...so yes, good job predicting last year. By all means, keep projecting, it is fun to rag on them and see who can actually get it right.
I think I'll create some sort of algorithm or something to try and project who's projections are projecting the best ;)
That's the spirit Albaugh! Anything to create a spreadsheet, right?!
You may think I'm kidding, but seriously, if you guys have any old predictions you can dig up I'll throw something together to see if any of you has any ability to predict anything with any regularity. Who knows, maybe Beebly has a knack for predicting the 6th place finisher every year.
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