As a follow-up to Craig's post below, I thought it would be interesting to see which players in our league are the biggest "values". I defined value as the difference between a player's current average draft position (ADP) and the equivalent draft position of the player's assigned round value for the upcoming draft (round value x 12).
Example : Magglio Ordonez has an ADP of 30. He'll cost Hanley an 8th round pick, which is the same as the 85th pick (assuming he's taken at the start of the round). So Ordonez has a positive "value" of 55.
Below are the 20 players who represent the biggest value. The top three are by far the top values, having ADPs in the top 50 and costing equivalent picks of 277. Powell may have been bad the past few years, but he's got 4 in the top 20 (including 3 in the top 10). Craig and Chris each have 3 in the top 20, and several others have 2.
Owners with no players on the list? That would be Jason and me. My biggest "value" is actually a player I'll probably not keep - Tim Hudson. That's not a good sign for the future, but at least last year (and this year, maybe) I'm in "win now" mode.
Owners with no players on the list? That would be me and Jason. My biggest "value" is actually a player I probably won't keep - Tim Hudson. That's not a good sign for the future, but at least last year (and this year, maybe) I'm in "win now" mode.
Ryan Braun
BJ Upton
Troy Tulowitzki
Chris B. Young
Delmon Young
Hanley Ramirez
Justin Upton
Yovani Gallardo
Tim Lincecum
Justin Verlander
Brian McCann
Alex Gordon
Jonathan Papelbon
Garrett Atkins
Alex Rios
Cole Hamels
Eric Byrnes
Kelly Johnson
Erik Bedard
Hunter Pence
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7 comments:
I was actually thinking of doing some analysis like this at some point...no point now I guess.
But it suprises me that Johnson ranks ahead of James Shields. In our league, I think Shields is much more valuable and Shields and Johnson have essentially the same pick value. But I suppose in shallower leagues where people don't rotate pitchers it might make some sense.
i'm still pissed i traded hanley ramirez for glaus...at least i won that year, but i still would have won had i not traded him. that's the last time i get taken by a preacher!
I wonder who the least valuable players would be that are on teams?
Shields is in the next 10, and it both a function of his ADP being a little lower and the fact that he'll cost you one round higher than Johnson. I was a bit surprised that Johnson has an ADP of 136, higher than I would have guessed.
The least valuable is a lot easier just to eyeball. Look at the players with top round values who will be drafted really late if at all. Guys like Curt Schilling, Felipe Lopez, Chris Carpenter, Tom Gordon....
Yeah, without doing any real analysis, my gut feeling tells me that the masses are wrong to take Johnson over Shields.
it will be interesting to see how the new format changes the league over the next few years. Reason I say this, as I still have a thought that Christian's strategey of win now might always be the best way to build your team.
There are so many unknown when dealing with young players, it might be better to always just go with the proven fantasy performers.
But like I said, it will be interesting to how this goes, because I have 3 players on Christian's list, so I hope this thought is wrong...
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