I did an analysis of each teams top two players. I didn't dive that deep into the numbers, though. I simply looked at the VORP numbers in the new Pecota projections. Because of this, I didn't necessarily look at the two players that a team would keep as their number 1 and number 2 players. Some of the players will be in the late rounds (Ryan Braun) some of the players might not even be kept (Chipper Jones). So take this analysis with a grain of salt, but I thought is was slighly interesting.
Some observations I had. I knew Tim had good players, but I didn't realize just how high his top players would rate. Also, I thought my team had two of the best players, but I was slightly surprised that they rated higher than Christian's top two (however, Christian would blow me away if you looked at the top 5 players from our teams). Hanley rates really high, but anyone with Puljos will. No surprise that Jason's top 2 are by far the worst. I would have thought Woodhouse would have faired better before doing this analysis.
There are also three groups here. Tim, Christian, Craig, Tracy and Hanley all project to over 100 points. The next group in the 80-100 range is Chris, Powell (who I'm surprised rated this high), Morten, Albaugh, and Woodhouse. Then in the 60-80 range we have Gintz and Jason (who rates just horrible).
Like I said though, these stats are not that important as not everyone will keep their top two players, and many of the players used for this would not be in the top 2 anyway. I will say, there looks like there will be 3-4 teams that will keep 0 or 1 players in their top 2.
Here is how things ranked out: (number is based on combined VORP of top two players)
Tim 129.9
Hanley 124.2
Tracy 109,7
Craig 107.9
Christian 106.1
Chris 95.8
Powell 91.5
Albaugh 86.7
Morten 84
Woodhouse 81.1
Gintz 79
Jason 61.4
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11 comments:
what were the duos for each team?
if sjjl 2008 ends up going tim, hanley, tracy i'll crap my pants.
I'd like to see that (wait, no I wouldn't!), because I think there's a reasonable chance that Tim takes first place this year.
Ok, here is the list. Realize that if I hadn't been looking at VORP, I probably woundn't have picked all of these players. For example, I would have never chosen Chipper Jones has Tracy's second best player...
Please respond if you think this list is crazy... however, realize I did just look at Pecota for the ratings...
Craig: Santana, Cabrera
Christian: Arod, Rollins
Chris: Reyes, Ortiz
Tim: Wright, Braun
Hanley: Puljos, Utley
Jason: Holiday, Granderson
Morten: Peavey, V. Martinez
Powell: Bedard, D. Lee
Gintz: Zimmerman, G. Sizemore
Albaugh: Beltran, Howard
Tracy: C. Jones, H. Ramirez
Woodhouse: A. Ramirez, S. Kazmir
One thing to keep in mind is that VORP denotes real value, not fantasy value. So, guys who get a lot of their fantasy value from steals will be undervalued by this system.
What would a better statistical number be to look at then?
I still don't know how Chipper Jones is the top 10 for VORP
I think the best way to do total value is simply look at the ADP for each player (since that is sort of the "market price"). It would be similar to my post above, but you could just look at the top 3 or 5 or 10 highest ADP players from each team, regardless of their "cost".
ADP is probably more fantasy centric, although the wisdom of crowds is sometimes wrong.
I'm not really sure what the best number is.
I was a little surprised to see that Crawford was above Zimmerman, but the, it is real value not fantasy like Chris said, and his best asset is steals, so that is the big difference. Also, Sizemore loses value as well.
The other thing that really gets me is Craig's cutoffs. I was closer to Chris in 6th place on the list than Jason in 12th, but he lumps me in the "bottom group."
Hey Anne, change your username and maybe I'll take you out of the bottom group...
Damn it Anne.
She must have used my google account, because I saw a reference to a Mom's group blog on the homepage. Ugh!
Just checking that I've got the display name corrected...
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